The ESC notes with concern the significant decline in the working-age population—by nearly one million people over the past 15 years. This is an alarming and clear indicator of increasingly severe labor market shortages. The demographic replacement rate—where there are only 69 young people entering the labor market for every 100 leaving it—poses a serious challenge to workforce continuity. This shortage calls for urgent policies to ensure that the Bulgarian economy has an adequate workforce and that strategic public systems—which form the backbone of economic stability—can continue to function.
This is noted by the Economic and Social Council of the Republic of Bulgaria in an analysis titled “Workforce Replacement in Occupations Supporting Key Economic and Social Sectors,” prepared at the request of the National Assembly.
The document adopted at the plenary session emphasizes that the issue of workforce renewal in professions that support key economic and social sectors is becoming increasingly critical for Bulgaria. In recent decades, the country has faced the combined effects of several adverse trends—a sustained decline in population, accelerated aging of the labor force, high outward migration of young and skilled workers, and deepening imbalances between the education system and the needs of the economy. These trends are placing serious pressure on the ability of a number of strategic sectors to function normally and are already leading to noticeable labor shortages.
The analysis identifies healthcare, social and long-term care, industrial manufacturing, engineering and technical professions, tourism and services, as well as a number of key public systems, including education and security. The analysis also highlights the structural mismatch between educational profiles and the needs of the economy, which leads to both an oversupply in some areas and an acute shortage in others. In this regard, the analysis emphasizes the need for an effective career guidance system that supports informed choices by students.
The ESC believes that the priority should be to tap into domestic reserves and create conditions that will enable Bulgarian professionals to remain in the country and return to it, including by encouraging the creation of high-quality jobs and adequate wages.
The ESC notes that the absence of a structured national system for providing long-term care, given the aging population and the large number of dependent individuals, necessitates making this sector a strategic national priority. A significant number of Bulgarian specialists in this field are currently integrated into the systems of other EU member states, representing a valuable but untapped resource for the national economy.
The analysis highlights the need for the education system to adapt to the accelerated adoption of automation, robotics, and artificial intelligence by strengthening training in digital and engineering skills.
Among the key findings are measures to boost the motivation and professional development of health and social care professionals, as well as the need to stabilize the workforce in these sectors. According to the analysis, while technological modernization boosts productivity, workforce shortages and an unfavorable age structure threaten the sustainability of the results achieved in the industry. The Council recommends establishing a national mechanism for forecasting labor force needs, linked to the education system and developed in partnership between the government, employers, and labor unions.
The ESC offers incentives to encourage people to choose engineering and technical professions, including scholarships, tax breaks, and improved working conditions, as well as measures to enhance career predictability. The report also emphasizes the role of retraining and collaboration between business and education as a tool for adapting to changing economic needs. Persistent regional imbalances lead to a concentration of personnel in major urban centers and a shortage in less developed areas, which hinders the provision of basic public services, the resolution further notes. The rapporteurs appointed are Milena Angelova—a member of the ESC from Group I, Veselin Mitov—a member of the ESC from Group II, and Ofelia Kaneva—a member of the ESC from Group III.
The ESC plenary session also adopted an Analysis of the Dynamics of Gross Value Added by Economic Activity (A21) for the period 2015–2024. In it, the ESC notes that during the period 2015–2024, structural changes in the Bulgarian economy indicate that the contributions of the “Agricultural Sector” and the “Industrial Sector” in the country are gradually losing ground to the “Services” sector. Lyuboslav Kostov from Group II was appointed as the rapporteur for the analysis.
